Methodology

How accurate are the estimates?

Every player-game of the last full season was replayed in order: before each game, each method estimated the chance of going over several lines using only earlier games, then we checked what happened. A well-calibrated method’s 70% calls come true about 70% of the time.

Calibration · 2025-26

dots on the diagonal = estimates mean what they say

Recency-weighted, smoothed (used on the site)Bootstrap of 3-game averages

Scores · lower is better

Method	Brier score	Log loss	Estimates
Recency-weighted, smoothed (used on the site)	0.1928	0.5691	438,145
Recency-weighted	0.1933	0.5734	438,145
Plain share of past games	0.1944	0.5750	438,145
Bootstrap of 3-game averages	0.2058	0.6452	438,145

Lines in the test are synthetic (around each player’s running average), not bookmaker lines. Past calibration does not guarantee future results. Estimates are for information and entertainment only — not betting advice.